OCTA Research said the strongest support for the hypothetical Robredo–Tulfo tandem is now concentrated in NCR and Balance Luzon, signaling what may be the consolidation of a new reform-oriented electoral coalition ahead of the 2028 elections.
According to the OCTA Research Tugon ng Masa survey, Robredo–Tulfo posted 61 percent support in NCR and 57 percent in Balance Luzon. The tandem also led in the Visayas with 48 percent support compared to 40 percent for Duterte–Marcos.
The findings suggest that the country’s largest and most politically influential regions may be shifting toward a different electoral alignment compared to recent national contests.
OCTA Research described the emerging political environment as increasingly competitive and regionally polarized. The survey organization noted that NCR and Balance Luzon now appear to be serving as the core territories of the Robredo–Tulfo coalition.
The significance of these regions goes beyond population size. NCR shapes media narratives, business sentiment, and national political discourse. Balance Luzon, meanwhile, represents one of the largest vote-rich blocs in the country and has historically played a decisive role in presidential elections.
Political analysts may interpret the findings as evidence that opposition-oriented voters who fragmented in previous elections may now be reconsolidating around a broader coalition framework.
The presence of Senator Raffy Tulfo in the hypothetical tandem is also politically significant. Tulfo’s mass appeal cuts across traditional ideological divisions and social classes, potentially broadening the coalition beyond the traditional Robredo base.
OCTA Research noted that previous surveys generally showed Duterte–Marcos holding commanding national advantages. The latest results therefore indicate a substantial political shift, particularly in urban and highly populated regions.
The survey may also reflect voter fatigue with political confrontation and growing demand for alternative leadership styles. Economic anxieties, governance debates, and institutional tensions may be reshaping public perception in ways that are beginning to favor different political narratives.
Still, OCTA Research cautioned that the findings remain an early-stage hypothetical measure rather than a definitive electoral forecast. The organization stressed that future alliances, candidate positioning, governance performance, and national developments could still significantly reshape voter preferences.
What remains politically important, however, is the symbolic meaning of the regional numbers. NCR and Luzon have historically functioned as indicators of broader national mood shifts. When these areas move decisively, national political conversations usually follow.
The latest OCTA Research survey therefore suggests that the emerging 2028 political battle may no longer revolve around a single dominant coalition. Instead, the country may now be entering a prolonged contest between competing regional power centers, each anchored by very different political narratives and voter identities.