The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre published its March–May 2026 seasonal outlook on approximately March 7, 2026, projecting above-normal temperatures across most of maritime and mainland Southeast Asia at precisely the moment a Middle East conflict has disrupted LNG supply chains serving the region’s gas-dependent power systems, creating a dual pressure on grid stability and fuel procurement that energy analysts describe as the tightest convergence of weather and supply risk since the 2022 Ukraine gas crisis. Indonesia and Malaysia face an 80–100% probability of above-normal temperatures through the three-month period, with elevated heat expected to spread to much of mainland Southeast Asia, including Thailand and northern Vietnam, in the weeks following.
The forecast arrives as Southeast Asian buyers, most of whose power systems rely heavily on thermal fuels, are already scrambling for LNG replacement cargoes at spot prices that have more than doubled since late February 2026, compressing the room for any demand response driven by higher cooling loads.
Key Facts At A Glance
- The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre published its March–May 2026 seasonal outlook around March 7, 2026, projecting above-normal temperatures across most of the ASEAN region
- Indonesia and Malaysia face an 80–100% probability of above-normal temperatures for the full March–May period, per ASMC multi-model ensemble projections
- Above-normal heat is forecast to begin over Indonesia and Malaysia before expanding to much of mainland Southeast Asia, including Thailand and northern Vietnam, in subsequent months
- La Niña conditions, which tend to bring wetter and cooler weather to parts of Southeast Asia, are projected by ASMC to weaken in February 2026 and transition to ENSO-neutral by March 2026
- Below-normal rainfall is forecast for most of the central and western Maritime Continent through May 2026, reducing hydropower output prospects during the dry season
- Only small pockets including southeastern Vietnam, Cambodia, and parts of the Philippines are forecast to see near-normal temperatures
- Asian LNG spot benchmark prices more than doubled from late February to above USD 24/MMBtu by March 5, 2026, the highest since January 2023, per Argus Media
- Energy analyst Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee stated that the industry is “back in gas crisis territory,” noting that demand-reduction measures available in the 2022 crisis have already been exhausted
Southeast Asia Faces Compounded Heat And LNG Supply Shock As ASMC Seasonal Forecast Collides With Middle East Crisis
The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre released its March–May 2026 seasonal outlook around March 7, 2026, projecting above-normal temperatures across most of maritime and mainland Southeast Asia. The publication landed at a moment of acute stress for regional energy markets: QatarEnergy had suspended LNG production at the Ras Laffan complex five days earlier following drone strikes, removing approximately 20% of global LNG export capacity and sending Asian spot prices to their highest level since January 2023. The convergence of elevated cooling demand and tightened fuel supply is now presenting regional power systems with a compounded challenge that analysts have described as among the most difficult since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine gas shock.
What The ASMC Forecast Says
The ASMC seasonal outlook, based on a multi-model ensemble drawing on leading international meteorological centres, projects above-normal temperatures as the dominant tercile for most of the ASEAN region through May 2026. Indonesia and Malaysia face the sharpest exposure, with the ASMC assigning an 80–100% probability of above-normal temperatures for both countries across the full three-month window, per reporting by Bloomberg, South China Morning Post, and Bangkok Post citing the ASMC publication dated approximately March 7.
The ASMC’s own published seasonal climate page confirms that above-normal temperature is predicted for most of the ASEAN region for the March–April–May period. The centre also notes that La Niña conditions, which tend to bring wetter, cooler patterns to parts of Southeast Asia, are forecast to weaken in February 2026 and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions in March 2026, removing a weather buffer that helped moderate temperatures and support hydropower output in the preceding months. Below-normal rainfall is forecast for most of the central and western Maritime Continent through May 2026, further constraining hydropower availability during the dry season.
The ASMC’s sub-seasonal outlook issued on February 26, 2026, covering the period of March 2–15, additionally confirmed drier-than-usual conditions for most of the central and eastern equatorial region in the first forecast week.
The elevated heat is projected to set in first over Indonesia and Malaysia, then expand to much of mainland Southeast Asia in the following two months, encompassing Thailand and northern Vietnam. Only limited areas, including southeastern Vietnam, Cambodia, and parts of the Philippines, are forecast to see near-normal temperatures through the period, per SCMP and Bangkok Post reporting.
The Energy Sector Collision
The forecast matters to the energy sector because higher temperatures in Southeast Asia directly translate into higher electricity demand, primarily driven by residential and commercial air conditioning and cooling loads. The pattern is well-documented: during the 2024 Southeast Asian heat wave, Thailand’s electricity usage hit a record daily high of 36,700 MW, Vietnam experienced temperatures around 40°C in several provinces, and the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines issued red and yellow alerts on multiple grids as power reserves were stretched, per S&P Global Commodity Insights reporting on that period.
The 2026 version of that scenario arrives simultaneously with a fuel supply disruption that has materially tightened the availability of the thermal fuels — gas and coal — that most Southeast Asian grids rely upon to absorb demand peaks. Thailand, Vietnam, and Bangladesh were all reported to be seeking March and April LNG shipments as of early March 2026, competing in the same thin spot market against buyers in Northeast Asia and Europe, per Bloomberg, South China Morning Post, and The Edge Malaysia. Spot LNG benchmark prices in Asia crossed USD 24/MMBtu by March 5, 2026, more than doubling from levels prevailing in late February.
Energy analyst Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee told Energy Connects that the industry is “back in gas crisis territory,” adding that demand-reduction measures available in 2022 — efficiency gains, fuel switching — have largely been exhausted. “There are far fewer redundancy and efficiency gains available to deal with LNG shortages today,” Kavonic said, as quoted by Energy Connects and The Edge Malaysia.
Country-Level Exposure
The risk is unevenly distributed. Thailand generates more than half of its electricity from natural gas and has limited hydropower reserves during the dry season. Its Energy Regulatory Commission approved three emergency spot LNG cargoes on March 4, 2026, and its Oil Fuel Fund was already spending approximately 400–450 million baht per day to subsidize diesel prices at that time, per Nation Thailand. A simultaneous surge in cooling demand could require additional spot procurement at elevated prices, placing further strain on the fund.
Vietnam, which is seeking March and April LNG cargoes and faces electricity demand growth of 10–12% under normal conditions in 2026 per its Ministry of Industry and Trade, is exposed through both its gas-fired power capacity and its hydro-dependent northern grid, which typically suffers during dry periods. Singapore, which generates approximately 95% of its electricity from imported LNG, faces a tariff adjustment mechanism that will capture sustained price increases in subsequent quarterly reviews.
Indonesia and Malaysia — the two countries identified by ASMC as facing the highest probability of above-normal temperatures — are both significant coal users for power generation, which provides some insulation from direct LNG price shocks. However, both also operate gas-fired generation capacity that draws on supplies increasingly exposed to global market pricing. Malaysia’s Tenaga Nasional Berhad manages a mixed generation portfolio that includes gas-fired plants, while Indonesia’s PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara faces ongoing subsidy pressures that a sustained demand surge would amplify.
The Dry Season Hydropower Variable
Below-normal rainfall forecast for most of the central and western Maritime Continent through May 2026 introduces an additional constraint: lower hydropower output. The Mekong sub-region, which spans Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam, is flagged by ASMC as facing heightened drought and hotspot conditions, with transboundary smoke haze risk also elevated in the northwestern portions of that sub-region. Reduced hydropower during the peak cooling season would place a greater dispatch burden on thermal plants, exactly the generation type most exposed to the current LNG supply disruption and price environment.
The ASMC notes that hotspot and smoke haze activity in the northern ASEAN region is likely to remain elevated under prevailing dry conditions, adding air quality stress to the broader energy and public health picture during the dry season months ahead.